FORELEND provides executives in banks and corporations with perspective on the capacity and willingness of 50 countries to meet obligations in convertible currency during a five-year period. It is published 1 April, 1 August, and 1 December. All 50 countries are covered in each issue.
Lending funds or extending credit to clients abroad involves risk. This risk has increased in many cases but decreased in others. BERI uses a set of complex variables, often unfamiliar to those involved in domestic operations, to answer such questions as: Are central bank reserves adequate to cover foreign exchange demands? Will a change in government policy restrict the outflow of convertible currency? Will certain industries or firms be provided favored exchange rates or access to foreign exchange?
Each of the fifty countries has a two-page briefing. Four sections, two on each page, are included:
Lender’s Risk Quantitative (LRquant), Lender’s Risk Qualitative (LRqual), Lender’s Risk Environment (LRenvir) and the Composite Score. (2004-2020, Present, +1 Year, and +5 Years).
The country’s outlook covered in three to four bullets of eight to ten lines. The comments are forecast-oriented and clarify lending opportunities and problems.
An Economic and Financial Information table giving statistics for critical indicators for 2004-2020, 2021F, and 2022F.
Political Information including the governmental system, changes in government, and the most probable political scenario.
FORELEND makes sense of often conflicting clues about future inflows and outflows of capital and the promptness of debt service. Using a computerized quantitative system refined over many years, BERI provides exclusive, comprehensive ratings that gauge a country’s capacity to remain current on payments. Unlike many other forecasting firms, BERI also analyzes the qualitative elements and willingness to pay interest and principal.
FORELEND is a monitoring service that analyzes economic, financial, monetary and political developments in 50 key countries.
Each country is covered in a concise, two-page analysis. Charts and statistics allow instant analysis of trends.
The lender’s risk ratings permits cross-country comparisons. It is a weighted score comprised of a computerized quantitative rating (ability of a country to raise the needed foreign exchange to meet debt obligations), a qualitative rating (competence, corruption, loan profile, etc.), and a political/economic rating (stability of the nation’s power structure and direction of the economy).
Each country begins with a Recommended Lender Action (RLA). Descriptive information on the reasoning behind the RLA and ratings allows lenders to draw independent conclusions.
One permanent panel of 108 senior bank, company, and government officials provides ratings for economic, financial and operating conditions in each country, and a second panel of 102 experts assesses sociopolitical factors. These judgments are the basis for each country’s political/economic rating.
BERI’s system for qualitative analysis provides perspective that is carefully screened for factual accuracy, clarity of presentation, and consistency with past performance and present conditions. Brief statements (bullets) summarize the key issues.